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BACKGROUND

The Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR), part of the W. Frank Barton School of Business at Wichita State University, collected these predictions from business professionals across Kansas following the Kansas Economic Outlook Conference on October 5, 2017. The resulting winner will be announced at next year’s conference and will receive a complimentary registration to that event. Overall results of all the predictions are shown below and at www.SP500.cedbr.org.

ACTUAL S&P 500 INDEX

BUSINESS PREDICTION RESULTS

As reported in the Center for Economic Development and Business Research's fifth annual stock market challenge, Kansas business professionals are forecasting a slowdown in the S&P 500 stock mark index for September 1, 2022. At the closing date of the annual survey, the value of the S&P 500 on November 8, 2021, was 4,701.7. The consensus forecast of business professionals was for the market to expand by 56 points over the next year, equating to only 1.2 percent growth.

Growth expectations varied from a decline of 17 percent to a growth of 21 percent. To put this in perspective, the long-run average from 1926 to 2018 was between 10 and 11 percent per year, and over the last year, it was 34 percent. Therefore, an increase of 1.2 percent is a considerable divergence from the historical and recent trends.

The consensus forecast of Kansas business professionals was not that far out of line with Goldman Sacks and JP Morgan. Both forecasting leaders expect a limited upside to the market in 2022, with Goldman predicting a gain of 4.3 and JP Morgan 6 percent. Embedded in all three outlooks is some type of correction within the market.

STUDENT PREDICTION RESULTS- 2022 Predictions Coming in Spring